The Million....

When locals are asked why they endure six months of winter to live in Chicago, three answers are commonplace: 1) Chicago is a "livable" city (this is not a populace that longs for New York) 2) Midwesterners make good neighbors (unless you live in Ferguson) and 3) there's no better place on earth in the summer (and by earth, the locals mean the Midwest).

All of those realities are all on display as the 1:28 Metra train comes to a stop in the Arlington Racetrack, yards from the main entrance to the track.  

Two of the best tracks in the land, Arlington and Del Mar, boast front-door service by rail. It's as fine a way to arrive at the track as I've encountered, though admittedly my request to borrow a submarine for Pacific Classic Day has yet to be approved by the Navy.

Everyone on our Metra train was in a good mood, and everyone gets off at the track. It's an exciting reality, even if 90% of the riders are about to beeline it to the nearest beer line in lieu of making a stop at Arlington's gorgeous paddock, which is just inside the eastern gate. It's a shame because the paddock is a must-visit locale at most racetracks, and Arlington is no exception.

In the paddock the horses are found in their last moments of calm, before getting saddled for the race. Trainers can be overheard giving incredibly succinct instructions to their jockeys ("he wants the lead Luis, just do what you do"). It's also where horseplayers refine their last minute picks based on which horse has their ears pricked, or is unexpectedly wearing wraps on their legs for the first time.

After three decades going to the track I have my own doctrine which governs visits to the paddock: don't bet on horses that are perspiring an alarming amount; ignore everything else.

I'm not an equine vet. Let's not pretend otherwise. I can't tell how sound or fit one horse is in comparison to another. Besides, evaluating a horse based on their presence in the paddock is like evaluating a college football player baed on their pro day: should the way a horse looks moments before the race trump the lifetime of past performances I have in the racing form?

I vote nay.

The beauty of this stance is that I can spend a nominal amount of time evaluating the horses, and a lot more time people watching. Oh, the people watching.

On Million Day you get the young and the old, families with picnics mingling with collegiate party goers. One group wears big hats and formal attire as if they were at the Derby. The next wears tank tops and jean shorts, as if it's their lone attire for the weekend. Anything goes.

My girlfriend and I have quickly made friends with a kindly, talkative local who is betting on Adelaide in the Secretariat -- one of the Grade I races preceding the Million -- due to a personal connection: it was the name of a deceased friend who would have turned 100 this year. I'm betting on Adelaide because he was one of the best 3 year-olds in Europe before shipping across the pond, and I think he's going to annihilate this mediocre group of natives.

Adelaide wins, but just barely, after running far too wide in the stretch. European races are run on courses with right-handed turns while we opt for counterclockwise in the States. Occasionally horses don't fare well due to the variation, and while Adelaide had run once before in the States without incident, his second effort wasn't so smooth. I'm lucky to escape the race with a W.

My girlfriend and I celebrate Adelaide's victory with a cocktail, though the bartender is openly questioning my drink of choice -- rum with oj and a splash of ginger ale -- in a good-hearted manner. It's the sort of banter that you expect and appreciate at Arlington.

Heading into the Million i'm down a little money on the day, but I've staked a large claim against Magician, the defending Breeder's Cup Turf Champion. When a horse wins a renowned race like the Derby or the Breeder's Cup they are candidates to get overbet in the future. Such is the case with Magician in my opinion, and I'm additionally concerned because he ran in Europe's biggest race of the summer three weeks prior to the Million. It's tough to run a great race with that short of a turn-around. Especially one on another continent.  

I need either Real Solution, Smoking Sun, or Up with the Birds to win the Million. If they do I'll cash my second winning Pick 3 of the day. If Magician or either of two longshots win, I'll be down a little.

As the horses approach the starting gate I notice a guy standing next to me wearing an Arc t-shirt. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the most prestigious race in Europe, run every year in October at Longchamp, just outside of Paris. A dutiful Midwesterner, he's quick to tell us about his trip with friends to Longchamp and how much they enjoyed it. He says it's close enough to Paris to take the Metro, a reality which has me inclined to pencil in a trip for an October in the future.

As the horses turn for home in the Million it's evident I am not going to win my bet. Magician and longshot Hardest Core are engaged in a two-horse race, having left everyone else behind. Hardest Core was running in allowance races on the east coast as recently as June, and now he is dueling with the Breeder's Cup champ. As they approach the wire, it's evident Hardest Core is going to win the Million and elevate his worth by a factor of 1000.

It's the kind of story that makes you glad to be a part of horse racing. Most experts would have questioned this horse's potential a few months ago. Now he has won the Million and is worth a boatload at stud. Rudy Ruettiger comes to the racetrack.

My pockets are $85 lighter as we leave, and I'm a little annoyed I didn't include the two longshots in the Million. If I'd have spent another $12 to include them in my Pick 3, I would have won $500. But that's horse racing, and like everyone else, I'm still in a good mood on the way out.

We've had a few drinks, made some new friends, and the 6:28 Metra is right on time to carry us back to the city after a picture perfect day or facing. On days like this, living in Chicago make a whole lot of sense. An impossible amount of sense.

If only I could say the same in the winter.

       

 


 
 
       

 

West Virginia...Where Red Bull is Cheaper than Sprite and $750K Purses are Commonplace

Mountaineer race track in Chester, West Virginia is not a celebrated stop on the thoroughbred racing circuit. Prior to 1998, it was rarely a stop at all. Times have changed thanks to a committed, long-term sponsorship.

Mountaineer's sponsor has worked hand-in-hand with the state legislature to increase purses and create competitive races, attracting some of the fastest, four-leggers in the nation to the foothills of Appalachia. Better still, it's been a consistent run: purses have steadily increased over the last two decades. 

It's the ideal partnership because the racetrack's sponsor doesn't even want the limelight.  Ironically, they don't even care that much about the races. A little paradoxical, yes, but that's what happens when your sponsor = slot machines. 

Welcome to racino racing. 

A racino is a property which houses a casino and a racetrack. The casino being the main source of revenue every single time. The racetrack smirking in the corner, having squeaked its way into the deal.  

In a nutshell, horsemen supported the introduction of casinos in places like West Virginia in exchange for a small % of the revenues to support purses for the racetrack. The more people gamble in the casino, the richer the races on the track. And just like that, the beer flows like wine.               

And Mountaineer is not just any racino. They are Lewis & Clark, a pioneer of the hybrid onsite gambling model. Quoting directly from Wikipedia: 

"Tracks like Delaware Park and West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, once considered places where local degenerates bet on broken-down nags in claiming races, are now among the wealthiest tracks around, with the best races."

I tend to think of Wikipedia as an objective source of information. My gut says racing fans in West Virginia and Delaware may not love the reference to "degenerates" and "broken-down nags." Regardless, Wikipedia is spot on in describing the current state of racing in those states. Saturday's card at Mountaineer boasts over $1.5M in purses, highlighted by the Grade II West Virginia Derby. By comparison, the most well known track in the country, Churchill Downs, doesn't have a single day of racing outside of the Derby and Oaks which offers $1.5M in purses. 

This is not your standard race card for degenerates.

I've been to Mountaineer once before. Kind of. By total chance I was across the street from Mountaineer 14 years ago for a bachelor party. A friend was getting married in a nebulous corner of the country where West Virginia and Ohio intersect. A moment from that weekend has stayed with me through the years. A moment that had nothing to do with Mountaineer, or even the bachelor party. 

After the wedding, which was the same weekend as the bachelor party, our group of collegiate friends went to a local bar where I ordered a Vodka & Red Bull.  The bartender retorted, "Red Bull? I think somebody dropped off some of that stuff last week. You want it in your drink?"

I assured him I did and plopped down $10 on the bar. He poured me a vodka red bull and then charged me $4.  I had been drinking vodka and sprite earlier in the night at the same bar....for $5.

Apparently I was the first person to ever order a vodka red bull at the bar and the fact it had been "dropped off" entitled me to a discount. 'Merica.

Tomorrow I'll take aim at a few races at Mountaineer and Saratoga, which hosts two Grade I's of their own. Hoping to write an entry before post-time with a few picks, leveraging those fond memories with friends in John Denver's Blue Ridge Mountains as inspiration. Good vibes can translate to winning wagers. So can $4 Vodka Red Bulls. 

Almost heaven, West Virginia. Take me home, country roads. 

         

      

Born to Run: A Girl Takes on the Boys in the Haskell

Sunday was another day to circle on the racing calendar, this time at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Monmouth being only a few miles north of Asbury Park, a native son had a prominent role in the proceedings.

Any day of racing that effectively integrates The Boss earns bonus points. A day that also includes a phenomenal filly taking on the boys is worthy of the record button on the DVR.  

And the filly in question wasn't racing merely to draw attention. Untapable is the star of Steve Asmussen's barn. She has been beyond brilliant in 2014, starting to earn comparisons to Asmussen's best filly ever, Rachel Alexandra, a filly who took on the boys in this very race in 2009 and won.

Sunday it was Untapable's chance to repeat the feat.             

Coming into the Haskell, Untapable was beginning to look the part of her phenomenal predecessor. She crushed the field in the Kentucky Oaks and followed suit with a similar effort in the Moother Goose.  

But those races were against other fillies. Prior to Sunday, she had never raced against boys.

A filly racing against the boys is atypical but not unheard of.  It happens more frequently with mares (i.e. a female horse which is at least four years old).  Mares are typically more experienced and they have added weight by that point in their career: both major pluses when jockeying for position with colts throughout the early stages of a race.       

Meanwhile, Untapable is three years old and had raced only eight times in her career prior to Sunday.  And the fillies she has beaten have looked mediocre at best.  For her, this race was the equivalent of leaving the friendly confines of Sea World to swim with the sharks in the ocean.     

Even with Sharknado looming, I still thought Untapable had a decent chance to win the Haskell.  She has been that impressive in her recent outings. But her odds at post time, even money, simply didn't warrant the investment. Those are crazy low odds for a filly taking on the boys for the first time.  

Some of the dollars being bet on her were surely of the sentimental variety, but I've had my wallet lightened too many times to let that play a factor. Instead, I played Social Inclusion and Albano across the board, and included them in an exacta box with Untapable (all of Sunday wagers are at bottom; I will start posting winning days to validate wagers made).     

I felt good about my Haskell bets, especially because of the odds at post-time. Both of my horses were overlays, meaning the odds on my horses increased after wagering began, offering me more value than that oddsmaker at the track thought appropriate. For example, Albano started the day at 6-1 but when the race actually started he was closer to 15-1 (note to self: do an entry on overlays at some point; in a maiden race if my odds went up that much I would be scared as opposed to delighted).     

Untapable did not win the Haskell. She got caught wide throughout and then tried to make a move on the far turn, but she was never a serious threat to the winner.  That's because Bayern ran like a horse possessed. This is the same Bayern that won for me on Belmont Day leading to a $800 Pick 3. 

Did I bet him this time around?  Of course not.  Why would I do a logical thing like that?!?!?!     

I thought the Haskell's 1 1/8 mile distance would be too much for Bayern. On Belmont day he nearly broke the track record at seven furlongs, but that race was a 1/4 mile shorter than the Haskell.  For a thoroughbred racing at 40 mph, tacking on an extra 1/4 mile is like a human running an extra 10K.  It's normally a very big deal.

Except it wasn't a big deal for Bayern. He got an easy lead and then toyed with the field. Poor call on my part. What are you gonna do.       

Fortunately, Albano ran second, returning a decent amount, and I finished ahead on the day thanks to back-to-back winning doubles to start the proceedings. A great day of racing all around and a big thank you to NBC for an hour of Haskell coverage on Sunday; every little bit of mid-summer attention on racing helps.                   

Sunday's wagers from Monmouth (and one from Saratoga to prove I'm an equal opportunity gambler):

   

The Shawon-O-Meter is Back: Aiming to Bat .333 at the Track

Had a couple good wagering days recently thanks to Del Mar, while putting myself in a position to win a lot more burritos when my longshots won the first race in multi-race bets.  Thankfully I played the longshots across the board, not solely in the multi-race bets. That's not always the case.

Often I will include longshots in a multi-race bet hoping to get some leverage, but I won't play the horse individually. I only have so many pesos to spend and I try to use them judicially.

Admittedly, this judiciousness assumes I'm not at Santa Anita pounding Dos Equis in the paddock on Breeders' Cup weekend. Judiciousness gets fuegoed Breeders' Cup weekend. The betting options are just too good, and the Dos Equis tastes too fine. Not surprisingly given those circumstances, my average bet tends to dramatically increase Breeders' Cup weekend. Note to Santa Anita: send Dos Equis a little extra dinero in their Navidad card next year.  

But mid-week betting on Del Mar from my couch can't be confused with Breeders' Cup weekend, and so I have to ask myself all the big questions before playing $2 across the board on a horse that is 20-1 ("would this $6 be better spent on 2/3 of a Maker's and Ginger later tonight?") . 

Thankfully I splurged on Pulla Train and $6 turned into $63.60. I also had Pulla in the first leg of a double, putting me in position to win another $240 if New Nature could win the following race.  

New Nature did not win the following race. He ran second. That's gonna happen. A lot.  

Murphy's 1st law of horse racing: your horse will finish second exponentially more often than first when you are live in a multi-race bet.  Running second in this scenario is a gut-wrenching way to lose, akin to a bad beat in poker.  But it's also inevitable, so you might as well grab a koozy and a Bud Heavy and get accustomed to running second when you need a W.

That, and I strongly recommend this bit of strategery from the bible of Spaceballs.          

I'm not about to stop playing multi-race bets just because of a near miss.  I spent $8 and came close to winning $240, and I still won over $50 on the race thanks to my across the board bet on Pulla Train. That = a license to keep firing. And a license to have more than 2/3 of a Maker's & Ginger.  

But it also got me thinking about an important question as a bettor: knowing that most of multi-race bets will be losers, what's a realistic target for the % of days I should walk away a winner at the track?

Multi-race bets -- like doubles and Pick 3's -- represent between 15 - 35% of my spend on most days.  And I'm gare-own-teed to lose the vast majority of those bets.  Around 90% will be losers.

Playing this out, I would guess that my average return on a $2 double is $70 and my average return on a $1 Pick 3 is $250.  Admittedly, these averages will fluctuate a fair amount from year to year.  On Belmont Day I hit a $1 Pick 3 which paid $800, so this year's Pick 3 average would be higher.  

Importantly, my average cost to play those bets isn't $1 and $2 respectively, because I'm using multiple horses in a lot of races.  My average cost in a double is probably $8 (often 4 horses in one race and then a single in the other), and my average cost in a Pick 3 is around $16 (6 horses X 3 horses X 1 horse).  Those examples are averages and will vary from bet to bet depending on what I think of the horses in a given sequence of races.                        

Based on my average costs and expected returns, I need to win 12% or more of the doubles I play and 7% or more of the Pick 3's I play in order to end up ahead.  If I play one double and one Pick 3 on a typical day, it also means I'm going to start 90% of my gambling days down $24.  That's a significant hole if i'm only going to spend another $50 on wagers in a typical day.

Realistically, I think I ought to be able to overcome that deficit 1 in 4 times.  One decent winner across the board would do it, as was the case yesterday with Pulla Train.  Or an exacta that didn't involve two favorites would get me back in the black.  Or a series of well played smaller bets.  

Accordingly, on the gambling days in which I don't hit a double or Pick 3, I'm going to set a goal of winning 25% of the time.  90% of betting days X 25% = 22.5% of gambling days. 

On the other hand every single time I hit a double or Pick 3 -- noting the possibility for an exception on the days when the Dos Equis flows like wine -- I should walk away a winner.  So that's another 10% of the time I should walk away a winner.  Those days should also represent the vast majority of my profits.  I'm counting on a few big winning days, like at the Belmont, to float a bunch of small losers.   

Admittedly, I don't think this a good strategery for everyone. Especially for newcomers. I think new bettors would be better off focusing on a few horses you like throughout the race card and playing them across the board, or even to win or show depending on the betting pools, and then using the rest of your money in a conservative manner that also allows you to learn as you go.  Just getting accustomed to amounts being played in the place and show pools and determining the relative value of those pools is a big deal (and an idea for a future entry).      

But for the sake of this rambling blog I wanted to set a goal for winning days and give you a perspective on how I arrived at this goal.  With that in mind, we'll see if I can hit .333 this year.  It will be like our own version of the Shawon-O-Meter.

I'll start looking for some cardboard and a magic marker. Go Cubs.     

            

Opening Day at the Spa

Back to back days. Here we go. Summer in full swing.

Yesterday was everything California, a rollicking day of racing and partying by the sea.  Today we visit upstate New York and Saratoga race track, where the air will have a more leisurely feel and every step will be steeped in history.  

Saratoga is commonly known as The Spa for the mineral springs which have lured visitors to Saratoga Springs for centuries. The oldest sporting venue in the country, Saratoga is a place where time stands still.  Today the gates open for the 146th season. 

Most visitors will bring a picnic and stake out their spot under the oak trees which line the Saratoga grounds. 20,000+ attendees will walk through the turnstiles every weekend day until September to see the best horses on the east coast, which traditionally stable at Saratoga and make an appearance at some point in the seven week meet. Everyone wants to be a part of the fun at The Spa.   

As for today's gambling, yesterday at Del Mar I was reacquainted with an important lesson that I need to commit to memory (or brand into my skin): track conditions matter, and there is no way to know how the track is playing early on opening day.  Yesterday speed was fairing very well on both the main track and the turf course at Del Mar.  Horses that were trying to come from behind were for the most part stuck in the mud, which applied to several of my Pick 3 selections.  Locking in my selections before getting a good read on how the track was faring is a rookie mistake.   

My key horse from yesterday Super Reagan got in good position early in the race and finished a hard fought second.  I thought he had it won turning for home, but he couldn't get passed the winner.  I had a $10 show bet on Super Reagan which returned $16 and helped to negate a little of the losses from my Pick 3, but I lost that profit of $6 right back when I played $2 across the board on Stoney Fleece in the 5th race who started slow and had no luck trying to pass horses in the stretch.   

In short, I should have watched a few races before committing to the horses in my Pick 3.  Or I should have negated my Pick 3 altogether and focused more energy on the races in the latter part of the card, once I knew how the track was faring.

I won't make the same mistake today.

I'm going to watch the first few races at Saratoga and then develop a plan for races later in the day.  Maybe play a late double or just enjoy the action and pick out a few horses to support across the board.  It's a long racing season and the excitement of an opening day can catch up with you, but patience is a huge virtue at the betting window and today I'm going to use some discretion. 

Opening day at The Spa is enough to get me excited.  The profits can wait.  At least a few races.             

      

Opening Day at Del Mar

Some days at the track are better than others.  And some are in another stratosphere.  Today, which is opening day at Del Mar, falls in the latter category.  It's one of the dozen or so "can't miss" racing dates on the calendar each year.

Del Mar opened its gates for business 77 years ago, and on that initial day patrons were greeted by a familiar face who was also one of the track's owners, Bing Crosby.  Good times, and good racing, have been a constant theme ever since.  The Pacific waves crashing onto land less than 1/2 mile away inspired Del Mar's tag line: "where the turf meets the surf." There's no better backdrop in racing.      

Fortunately for our betting purposes, owners and trainers flock to Del Mar.  No one wants to miss out on the big purses, or the party.  All of which translates to big fields with lots of viable betting interests. Opening day is no exception.

The average field size today is 10, and there are very few duds amongst the betting options.  It's a virtual guarantee that some of the multi-race bets will yield big payouts.  Place and show payouts will also exceed the norm, as dollars get spread out on more horses.  In short, there is a lot of different ways we can go as we aim to cash a few tickets as a poor substitute for being there in person.

As I start to scroll through the past performances for today's card, I'm quickly reminded of an important betting consideration: most of today's entrants on the main track have been running at Santa Anita all spring, which is a dirt surface.  Del Mar's main track is an all-weather polytrack.  The two surfaces are very, very different.  And that brings us to Betting Angle to Live By #5: proceed with caution when a horse has never raced over the track.

A horse could be in the best form of his life, but if he has never raced at a particular track, there's a valid reason to question whether the current form will translate to continued success.  There's exponentially more reason to be cautious if the horse is also running on a new surface, as is the case when a horse goes from dirt to polytrack for the first time.

Some of today's races will feature multiple horses who have never run at Del Mar. Workouts over the course become more important in those instances.  And if a horse has never run on any polytrack course I'm going to demand a much higher price, or I'm going to take a stand and bet against the favorite, opting to go deep and use a lot of horses in a multi-race bet (like a Pick 3).

My feature bet of the day will highlight a lightly raced maiden who ran his best race over Polytrack, the #2 (Super Reagan) in the 4th race.  Maidens are horses which have never won, and race tracks often have races solely for maidens in order to ensure the race is competitive. Super Reagan has only raced three times and in his last race he was running against better horses in a $40K claiming race, whereas today he drops and runs for $20K.  I'll be very surprised if his morning line of 8-1 holds, but I think he has a big chance today at a decent price.  

My Pick 3 will start in the 3rd race where I'm going to use 2 (Hail Mary), 3 (Zilber) & 5 (Biorythym). Then I'm only using Super Reagan in the 4th race.  In the last leg I'll go five deep with 2, 7, 8, 9, and 10.  That $1 Pick 3 will only cost me $18.

Depending on the odds at post time, I'm likely to play some money on the 2 and/or 8 in the 5th race, as I think both have a decent shot and should offer some value.

Summer officially begins when racing starts at Del Mar and Saratoga. Del Mar opens today, Saratoga tomorrow. I can't wait to get to both places before this summer ends.  



   

Previewing Tomorrow's Arlington Handicap......

Heading to Arlington tomorrow to watch four turf races which are preps for Arlington Million Day.  The Million has one of the most remarkable histories in our sport, and it was the first thoroughbred race to boast a $1M purse. It's a must attend event on for anyone living in proximity to Chicago.

The Million, and all of Arlington's biggest races, are run on turf.  I happen to prefer betting on turf races, especially those a mile or more in length.  In general, turf fields are larger and the races a little less predictable. Jockeys are forced to get in good position early to avoid getting caught wide going into the first turn.  And the stretch run is shorter in turf races, which means it's really important to be in good position coming out of the final turn. Easier said than done. 

Screwy things happen on turf. Which leads to bigger payouts. What's not to like?      

In preparation for tomorrow, I want to review two horses in the 7th race, the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap on turf.  As a quick aside, you can find these past performances (often called "PPs") and the PPs for all the graded stakes races for this weekend here (refreshed weekly).   

First let's take a look at the #1 horse, Admiral Kitten:

                          

Admiral Kitten's morning line odds are 3-1, as noted in the top left corner above the jockey, "Leparoux." Those odds are Admiral Kitten's success last year, in particular his success at Arlington Park. In the top right of the screenshot, the "AP" stands for Arlington Park and the "3  1 - 2 - 0" next to AP means that Admiral Kitten has raced three times at Arlington Park.  The "1" means he won one of those three races, and the "2" means he finished second twice. A stellar record. More so because he won the G1 ("Grade One") Secretariat.  G1 races are as good as it gets in horse racing. 

However, Admiral Kitten's record in 2014 essssssssss not so good.  In 2014 his record in four races -- as noted two rows above the "AP" -- one victory and no 2nd or 3rd place finishes. The one victory was a Grade 3 on January 25th at "Hou" (Sam Houston Racetrack). Sam Houston is not known for hosting great turf races and that victory should not be considered in the same class as his wins last year.  

Meanwhile, Admiral Kitten's form since January reminds me of Roy Hibbert's submarine dive with the the Indiana Pacers over that same time. This was a superb horse up until January. Since then it looks like he needs a psychiatrist.  Admiral Kitten has been inexplicably awful the last five months.

Mike Maker, Admiral Kitten's trainer, is obviously hoping a return to Arlington will help his colt. His best race would easily beat this group. None of these are horses are in Admiral Kitten's class, if he regain the form from last year.  But it's not 2013 any more, and there is no way i'm taking 3-1 on a horse is less than his best.  Would you bet on horse racing's version of Roy Hibbert? Me neither.      

And that brings us to BALB #4: be very leery of favorites with recent form issues.

It's one thing to bet on a horse coming off a singular bad race, a strategy I whole-heartedly endorse.  Horses have bad days.  But I expect increased odds for my willingness to bet on a horse coming off a clunker.  It's very different to bet on a horse with low odds coming off multiple poor efforts. 

Granted, Admiral Kitten is only four years old, which means he should be in the prime of his career. It's entirely possible that when he gets back on the Arlington turf tomorrow, he will steamroll this group. But I'm going to make Admiral Kitten prove his current form isn't a fluke before he gets any of my dollars. The odds just don't warrant the investment in my opinion. 

Meanwhile, Infinite Magic's past performances look very similar to Admiral Kitten in some respects, but I'm much more interested in his prospects.   

Here are the specific considerations which make me interested in Infinite Magic as a bettor:

• Infinite Magic has only raced once this year. Horses aren't typically at their best in their first race after a break, so we need to excuse his last race, which wasn't that bad. Meanwhile, horses often race really well in their second or third race after a break, which is why you see a star above and the note "Eligible to improve in 2nd start since Layoff" (note: Admiral Kitten's 2nd and 3rd races this year after a layoff were terrible, another red flag). 
• Two of Infinite Magic's recent races were on wet turf courses.  In the Oct 5th race the course was soft ("sf") and in Infinite Magic's most recent race "yl" means yielding, another designation for a wet course. It's obvious that Infinite Magic doesn't like wet turf courses; all of his best races have been on firm ground. So I'm willing to excuse the poor races on wet ground, but if it rains tonight or tomorrow my entire outlook on this horse changes.     
• Infinite Magic likes to win.  He won two races by a nose (noted as "1no" in the PP above) and another by a head ("1hd"). When this horse is in a close race, he tends to win.  That's a great attribute, especially for a long shot.
• Infinite Magic is offering value.  Infinite Magic's morning line odds are 10-1, more than 3X that of Admiral Kitten.  I'm not sure he will offer quite that much value at post time tomorrow, but i'm guessing he will be 8-1 and 2.5X Admiral Kitten's odds.  

If Infinite Magic goes off at 8-1, a means to evaluate the value you're getting is to ask yourself: if this race were run eight times, would Infinite Magic win it more than once? I think he would. He has won 50% of the turf races on firm ground in his career. So as long as there's no rain tomorrow, and his odds are 8-1 or higher, Infinite Magic will be getting some of my pesos tomorrow. We'll see how I fare.              

                

Editor's Note: as chance would have it, it did rain at Arlington, which negated my visit and my bet on Infinite Magic.  It was a good thing I held off as Infinite Magic was no factor in the race.  Admiral Kitten got a dream run along the inside and finished a narrowly beaten second.