Previewing Tomorrow's Arlington Handicap......

Heading to Arlington tomorrow to watch four turf races which are preps for Arlington Million Day.  The Million has one of the most remarkable histories in our sport, and it was the first thoroughbred race to boast a $1M purse. It's a must attend event on for anyone living in proximity to Chicago.

The Million, and all of Arlington's biggest races, are run on turf.  I happen to prefer betting on turf races, especially those a mile or more in length.  In general, turf fields are larger and the races a little less predictable. Jockeys are forced to get in good position early to avoid getting caught wide going into the first turn.  And the stretch run is shorter in turf races, which means it's really important to be in good position coming out of the final turn. Easier said than done. 

Screwy things happen on turf. Which leads to bigger payouts. What's not to like?      

In preparation for tomorrow, I want to review two horses in the 7th race, the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap on turf.  As a quick aside, you can find these past performances (often called "PPs") and the PPs for all the graded stakes races for this weekend here (refreshed weekly).   

First let's take a look at the #1 horse, Admiral Kitten:

                          

Admiral Kitten's morning line odds are 3-1, as noted in the top left corner above the jockey, "Leparoux." Those odds are Admiral Kitten's success last year, in particular his success at Arlington Park. In the top right of the screenshot, the "AP" stands for Arlington Park and the "3  1 - 2 - 0" next to AP means that Admiral Kitten has raced three times at Arlington Park.  The "1" means he won one of those three races, and the "2" means he finished second twice. A stellar record. More so because he won the G1 ("Grade One") Secretariat.  G1 races are as good as it gets in horse racing. 

However, Admiral Kitten's record in 2014 essssssssss not so good.  In 2014 his record in four races -- as noted two rows above the "AP" -- one victory and no 2nd or 3rd place finishes. The one victory was a Grade 3 on January 25th at "Hou" (Sam Houston Racetrack). Sam Houston is not known for hosting great turf races and that victory should not be considered in the same class as his wins last year.  

Meanwhile, Admiral Kitten's form since January reminds me of Roy Hibbert's submarine dive with the the Indiana Pacers over that same time. This was a superb horse up until January. Since then it looks like he needs a psychiatrist.  Admiral Kitten has been inexplicably awful the last five months.

Mike Maker, Admiral Kitten's trainer, is obviously hoping a return to Arlington will help his colt. His best race would easily beat this group. None of these are horses are in Admiral Kitten's class, if he regain the form from last year.  But it's not 2013 any more, and there is no way i'm taking 3-1 on a horse is less than his best.  Would you bet on horse racing's version of Roy Hibbert? Me neither.      

And that brings us to BALB #4: be very leery of favorites with recent form issues.

It's one thing to bet on a horse coming off a singular bad race, a strategy I whole-heartedly endorse.  Horses have bad days.  But I expect increased odds for my willingness to bet on a horse coming off a clunker.  It's very different to bet on a horse with low odds coming off multiple poor efforts. 

Granted, Admiral Kitten is only four years old, which means he should be in the prime of his career. It's entirely possible that when he gets back on the Arlington turf tomorrow, he will steamroll this group. But I'm going to make Admiral Kitten prove his current form isn't a fluke before he gets any of my dollars. The odds just don't warrant the investment in my opinion. 

Meanwhile, Infinite Magic's past performances look very similar to Admiral Kitten in some respects, but I'm much more interested in his prospects.   

Here are the specific considerations which make me interested in Infinite Magic as a bettor:

• Infinite Magic has only raced once this year. Horses aren't typically at their best in their first race after a break, so we need to excuse his last race, which wasn't that bad. Meanwhile, horses often race really well in their second or third race after a break, which is why you see a star above and the note "Eligible to improve in 2nd start since Layoff" (note: Admiral Kitten's 2nd and 3rd races this year after a layoff were terrible, another red flag). 
• Two of Infinite Magic's recent races were on wet turf courses.  In the Oct 5th race the course was soft ("sf") and in Infinite Magic's most recent race "yl" means yielding, another designation for a wet course. It's obvious that Infinite Magic doesn't like wet turf courses; all of his best races have been on firm ground. So I'm willing to excuse the poor races on wet ground, but if it rains tonight or tomorrow my entire outlook on this horse changes.     
• Infinite Magic likes to win.  He won two races by a nose (noted as "1no" in the PP above) and another by a head ("1hd"). When this horse is in a close race, he tends to win.  That's a great attribute, especially for a long shot.
• Infinite Magic is offering value.  Infinite Magic's morning line odds are 10-1, more than 3X that of Admiral Kitten.  I'm not sure he will offer quite that much value at post time tomorrow, but i'm guessing he will be 8-1 and 2.5X Admiral Kitten's odds.  

If Infinite Magic goes off at 8-1, a means to evaluate the value you're getting is to ask yourself: if this race were run eight times, would Infinite Magic win it more than once? I think he would. He has won 50% of the turf races on firm ground in his career. So as long as there's no rain tomorrow, and his odds are 8-1 or higher, Infinite Magic will be getting some of my pesos tomorrow. We'll see how I fare.              

                

Editor's Note: as chance would have it, it did rain at Arlington, which negated my visit and my bet on Infinite Magic.  It was a good thing I held off as Infinite Magic was no factor in the race.  Admiral Kitten got a dream run along the inside and finished a narrowly beaten second.