The Shawon-O-Meter is Back: Aiming to Bat .333 at the Track

Had a couple good wagering days recently thanks to Del Mar, while putting myself in a position to win a lot more burritos when my longshots won the first race in multi-race bets.  Thankfully I played the longshots across the board, not solely in the multi-race bets. That's not always the case.

Often I will include longshots in a multi-race bet hoping to get some leverage, but I won't play the horse individually. I only have so many pesos to spend and I try to use them judicially.

Admittedly, this judiciousness assumes I'm not at Santa Anita pounding Dos Equis in the paddock on Breeders' Cup weekend. Judiciousness gets fuegoed Breeders' Cup weekend. The betting options are just too good, and the Dos Equis tastes too fine. Not surprisingly given those circumstances, my average bet tends to dramatically increase Breeders' Cup weekend. Note to Santa Anita: send Dos Equis a little extra dinero in their Navidad card next year.  

But mid-week betting on Del Mar from my couch can't be confused with Breeders' Cup weekend, and so I have to ask myself all the big questions before playing $2 across the board on a horse that is 20-1 ("would this $6 be better spent on 2/3 of a Maker's and Ginger later tonight?") . 

Thankfully I splurged on Pulla Train and $6 turned into $63.60. I also had Pulla in the first leg of a double, putting me in position to win another $240 if New Nature could win the following race.  

New Nature did not win the following race. He ran second. That's gonna happen. A lot.  

Murphy's 1st law of horse racing: your horse will finish second exponentially more often than first when you are live in a multi-race bet.  Running second in this scenario is a gut-wrenching way to lose, akin to a bad beat in poker.  But it's also inevitable, so you might as well grab a koozy and a Bud Heavy and get accustomed to running second when you need a W.

That, and I strongly recommend this bit of strategery from the bible of Spaceballs.          

I'm not about to stop playing multi-race bets just because of a near miss.  I spent $8 and came close to winning $240, and I still won over $50 on the race thanks to my across the board bet on Pulla Train. That = a license to keep firing. And a license to have more than 2/3 of a Maker's & Ginger.  

But it also got me thinking about an important question as a bettor: knowing that most of multi-race bets will be losers, what's a realistic target for the % of days I should walk away a winner at the track?

Multi-race bets -- like doubles and Pick 3's -- represent between 15 - 35% of my spend on most days.  And I'm gare-own-teed to lose the vast majority of those bets.  Around 90% will be losers.

Playing this out, I would guess that my average return on a $2 double is $70 and my average return on a $1 Pick 3 is $250.  Admittedly, these averages will fluctuate a fair amount from year to year.  On Belmont Day I hit a $1 Pick 3 which paid $800, so this year's Pick 3 average would be higher.  

Importantly, my average cost to play those bets isn't $1 and $2 respectively, because I'm using multiple horses in a lot of races.  My average cost in a double is probably $8 (often 4 horses in one race and then a single in the other), and my average cost in a Pick 3 is around $16 (6 horses X 3 horses X 1 horse).  Those examples are averages and will vary from bet to bet depending on what I think of the horses in a given sequence of races.                        

Based on my average costs and expected returns, I need to win 12% or more of the doubles I play and 7% or more of the Pick 3's I play in order to end up ahead.  If I play one double and one Pick 3 on a typical day, it also means I'm going to start 90% of my gambling days down $24.  That's a significant hole if i'm only going to spend another $50 on wagers in a typical day.

Realistically, I think I ought to be able to overcome that deficit 1 in 4 times.  One decent winner across the board would do it, as was the case yesterday with Pulla Train.  Or an exacta that didn't involve two favorites would get me back in the black.  Or a series of well played smaller bets.  

Accordingly, on the gambling days in which I don't hit a double or Pick 3, I'm going to set a goal of winning 25% of the time.  90% of betting days X 25% = 22.5% of gambling days. 

On the other hand every single time I hit a double or Pick 3 -- noting the possibility for an exception on the days when the Dos Equis flows like wine -- I should walk away a winner.  So that's another 10% of the time I should walk away a winner.  Those days should also represent the vast majority of my profits.  I'm counting on a few big winning days, like at the Belmont, to float a bunch of small losers.   

Admittedly, I don't think this a good strategery for everyone. Especially for newcomers. I think new bettors would be better off focusing on a few horses you like throughout the race card and playing them across the board, or even to win or show depending on the betting pools, and then using the rest of your money in a conservative manner that also allows you to learn as you go.  Just getting accustomed to amounts being played in the place and show pools and determining the relative value of those pools is a big deal (and an idea for a future entry).      

But for the sake of this rambling blog I wanted to set a goal for winning days and give you a perspective on how I arrived at this goal.  With that in mind, we'll see if I can hit .333 this year.  It will be like our own version of the Shawon-O-Meter.

I'll start looking for some cardboard and a magic marker. Go Cubs.