The racing calendar this weekend is like Denny's at 4 am on a Saturday night: it's a crowded lineup, ultra diverse, there's value to be had, and nothing would surprise me.
An entry dedicated to Canada's premier race, the Queen's Plate, is hopefully forthcoming tomorrow. For now we focus on the coasts, as Belmont hosts a pair of new, million dollar turf races in addition to a couple staples, the Suburban and the Dwyer (Belmont is marketing the entire day of racing as The Stars and Stripes). Later in southern California, Los Alamitos opens their door to thoroughbred racing, filling a void from Hollywood Park's closing.
Los Al has been an esteemed host to quarter horse racing for the last 63 years, and their first foray into thoroughbred racing is not a half-hearted effort. Saturday's feature event is the $500K Los Alamitos Derby which attracted 2 year-old champion and early Derby favorite, Shared Belief, who is coming back after an injury plagued spring.
Los Al has been an esteemed host to quarter horse racing for the last 63 years, and their first foray into thoroughbred racing is not a half-hearted effort. Saturday's feature event is the $500K Los Alamitos Derby which attracted 2 year-old champion and early Derby favorite, Shared Belief, who is coming back after an injury plagued spring.
As a bettor this weekend appeals to me a lot. As in, a lot a lot. I am always looking for racing cards that have big fields (ex: races with more than 8 horses) and/or unusual characteristics. A racetrack that is hosting thoroughbred racing for the first time -- meaning bettors have no means of knowing whether the horses will take a liking to this particular track -- qualifies as very, very unusual.
Meanwhile the feature race in New York features a mix of horses from the U.S. and Europe, and the European invaders have never run on the Belmont turf. The ground in the U.S. tends to be much firmer than in Europe, which appeals to some horses much more than others, which means more uncertainty for bettor. Uncertainty is another characteristic which bettors should welcome with open arms when looking for a big payday.
Meanwhile the feature race in New York features a mix of horses from the U.S. and Europe, and the European invaders have never run on the Belmont turf. The ground in the U.S. tends to be much firmer than in Europe, which appeals to some horses much more than others, which means more uncertainty for bettor. Uncertainty is another characteristic which bettors should welcome with open arms when looking for a big payday.
And now we've arrived at Betting Angle to Live By #2: you don't have to like a horse to be excited about a race; you can be excited if you are willing to bet against horses as well.
Yes, that's right, the short is alive and well in thoroughbred racing. It's an important concept that will be revisited often as I frequently utilize this strategy in my wagers.
In today's feature race at Belmont, the $1.25M Belmont Invitational Handicap, the morning line favorite -- set by the track's oddsmaker before anyone starts betting and influences the finals odds -- is Toast of New York. Toast of New York is by all accounts, a terrific horse. In his brief, five-race career, he has won three races and $1.2M. That is mucho coin for a young horse.
But all of Toast of New York's earnings have come on synthetic racetracks and today he is racing on grass. Ironically, Toast of New York is one of the horses shipping in from Europe who has never raced in the U.S., and it's entirely possible he won't care for the turf course in the state of his namesake. Horses experience jet lag too and any time they race away from tracks they are familiar with you have to proceed cautiously. Finally, Toast of New York hasn't raced in over three months, and that is a little too long for my taste buds to confidently back a horse.
Granted, horses who run well on synthetic racetracks often run well on grass too. Horses are also capable of running well in their first race after rest. In fact, Toast of New York has already proven capable of firing off the bench. All of which is to admit that I may look back and think my willingness to bet against this horse was about as smart as a midnight walk with Vlad the Impaler. But I've had too much success in the past taking stands of this variety, which is why it's a BALB.
I'm going to play a daily double and a Pick 3 at Belmont and take six different horses in the Belmont Derby Invitational (3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9). I'm not including Toast of New York in that lot trying as I'm willing to subtract a few pesos -- $36 to be exact -- if he wins.
I'm going to play a $18 double with Declan's Warrior, Dad's Cap, and Palace in the race before the Belmont Invitational. A double requires me to pick the winner of two straight horses, but I can use as many horses as I want in each race. The costs can add up quickly and can sometimes exceed the payout if you win, so it's best not to get too carried away. My double in which I play three horses in one race and six in the next will cost me $18, and I'm confident based on the horses I've selected that all of my possible combinations will pay $18 or more.
In my Pick 3 the Belmont Invitational will be the first race, and I'll use the same six horses. In the second race of that bet, the Suburban, I'm going to include Zivo at a big price, Norumbega, and the Last Gun Fighter (horses 3, 4, and 5). Finally, in the Belmont Oaks Invitational I'm only taking one horse: Room Service. When you only take one horse in a multi-race bet like a Pick 3, the lone horse you are selecting is called a "single." My $1 Pick 3 in which I use six horses in the first race of my bet, three horses in the second race, and only one race in the third race (6 X 3 X 1) will also cost me $18.
I'm singling Room Service because she is the best young, turf filly in America. She has only raced once this year. And even though she has never raced at Belmont, her past performances keep getting better. If she just runs as well as her last race and gets a good trip, I think she will win this race.
Importantly: if I win the first two races in my Pick 3, I've got additional options. I can check and see what my Pick 3 will pay before the third race of my bet is run, and I can play some money to win horses other than Room Service as a hedge. Every racetrack and online betting sites like TVG post "will pays" for Pick 3s going into the final race of the bet, so you know exactly how much you stand to win if you are still live (win the first two races). This is an additional advantage, and not a small one, of singling a horse in the last race of your Pick 3. If my single is in the first race of a Pick 3 I don't have the opportunity to hedge because I have no idea how my horses will fare in the latter races.
Depending on the odds, I'm also likely to play some money on individual horses throughout the races at Belmont. Zivo for sure, and likely a few others as well. In order to try and determine how much value each horse offers on their own, I will wait and evaluate each horse's odds closer to post time (i.e. when the race starts). Whether or not this is a good idea is certainly open for discussion, as sometimes I will decide not to bet on a horse I originally liked because other bettors have jumped on the bandwagon too and lowered the horses odds. It's certainly bitten me before, but it's still the route I prefer.
I'm going to play a daily double and a Pick 3 at Belmont and take six different horses in the Belmont Derby Invitational (3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9). I'm not including Toast of New York in that lot trying as I'm willing to subtract a few pesos -- $36 to be exact -- if he wins.
I'm going to play a $18 double with Declan's Warrior, Dad's Cap, and Palace in the race before the Belmont Invitational. A double requires me to pick the winner of two straight horses, but I can use as many horses as I want in each race. The costs can add up quickly and can sometimes exceed the payout if you win, so it's best not to get too carried away. My double in which I play three horses in one race and six in the next will cost me $18, and I'm confident based on the horses I've selected that all of my possible combinations will pay $18 or more.
In my Pick 3 the Belmont Invitational will be the first race, and I'll use the same six horses. In the second race of that bet, the Suburban, I'm going to include Zivo at a big price, Norumbega, and the Last Gun Fighter (horses 3, 4, and 5). Finally, in the Belmont Oaks Invitational I'm only taking one horse: Room Service. When you only take one horse in a multi-race bet like a Pick 3, the lone horse you are selecting is called a "single." My $1 Pick 3 in which I use six horses in the first race of my bet, three horses in the second race, and only one race in the third race (6 X 3 X 1) will also cost me $18.
I'm singling Room Service because she is the best young, turf filly in America. She has only raced once this year. And even though she has never raced at Belmont, her past performances keep getting better. If she just runs as well as her last race and gets a good trip, I think she will win this race.
Importantly: if I win the first two races in my Pick 3, I've got additional options. I can check and see what my Pick 3 will pay before the third race of my bet is run, and I can play some money to win horses other than Room Service as a hedge. Every racetrack and online betting sites like TVG post "will pays" for Pick 3s going into the final race of the bet, so you know exactly how much you stand to win if you are still live (win the first two races). This is an additional advantage, and not a small one, of singling a horse in the last race of your Pick 3. If my single is in the first race of a Pick 3 I don't have the opportunity to hedge because I have no idea how my horses will fare in the latter races.
Depending on the odds, I'm also likely to play some money on individual horses throughout the races at Belmont. Zivo for sure, and likely a few others as well. In order to try and determine how much value each horse offers on their own, I will wait and evaluate each horse's odds closer to post time (i.e. when the race starts). Whether or not this is a good idea is certainly open for discussion, as sometimes I will decide not to bet on a horse I originally liked because other bettors have jumped on the bandwagon too and lowered the horses odds. It's certainly bitten me before, but it's still the route I prefer.
Tonight at Los Alamitos Shared Belief will be a huge favorite, even though he's never run at Los Al or on dirt; his races to date have all been on synthetic surfaces (alarm bells should be ringing). Shared Belief has yet to lose a race, and he was so impressive as a two year-old that his odds will be adversely affected due to the hype. Every horse racing fan in California knows this horse.
I won't be disappointed if Shared Belief wins; I was on his bandwagon early on and even had a future bet on him to win the Kentucky Derby last November at 40-1. That being said, I'm going to play Can the Man across the board in this race (to win, place, and show). Can the Man has already won on the dirt. He has trained well at Los Alamitos. And he should offer enough value that if he runs second, I'll should get my money back. If he wins, a decent payout awaits.
I won't be disappointed if Shared Belief wins; I was on his bandwagon early on and even had a future bet on him to win the Kentucky Derby last November at 40-1. That being said, I'm going to play Can the Man across the board in this race (to win, place, and show). Can the Man has already won on the dirt. He has trained well at Los Alamitos. And he should offer enough value that if he runs second, I'll should get my money back. If he wins, a decent payout awaits.
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