Born to Run: A Girl Takes on the Boys in the Haskell

Sunday was another day to circle on the racing calendar, this time at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Monmouth being only a few miles north of Asbury Park, a native son had a prominent role in the proceedings.

Any day of racing that effectively integrates The Boss earns bonus points. A day that also includes a phenomenal filly taking on the boys is worthy of the record button on the DVR.  

And the filly in question wasn't racing merely to draw attention. Untapable is the star of Steve Asmussen's barn. She has been beyond brilliant in 2014, starting to earn comparisons to Asmussen's best filly ever, Rachel Alexandra, a filly who took on the boys in this very race in 2009 and won.

Sunday it was Untapable's chance to repeat the feat.             

Coming into the Haskell, Untapable was beginning to look the part of her phenomenal predecessor. She crushed the field in the Kentucky Oaks and followed suit with a similar effort in the Moother Goose.  

But those races were against other fillies. Prior to Sunday, she had never raced against boys.

A filly racing against the boys is atypical but not unheard of.  It happens more frequently with mares (i.e. a female horse which is at least four years old).  Mares are typically more experienced and they have added weight by that point in their career: both major pluses when jockeying for position with colts throughout the early stages of a race.       

Meanwhile, Untapable is three years old and had raced only eight times in her career prior to Sunday.  And the fillies she has beaten have looked mediocre at best.  For her, this race was the equivalent of leaving the friendly confines of Sea World to swim with the sharks in the ocean.     

Even with Sharknado looming, I still thought Untapable had a decent chance to win the Haskell.  She has been that impressive in her recent outings. But her odds at post time, even money, simply didn't warrant the investment. Those are crazy low odds for a filly taking on the boys for the first time.  

Some of the dollars being bet on her were surely of the sentimental variety, but I've had my wallet lightened too many times to let that play a factor. Instead, I played Social Inclusion and Albano across the board, and included them in an exacta box with Untapable (all of Sunday wagers are at bottom; I will start posting winning days to validate wagers made).     

I felt good about my Haskell bets, especially because of the odds at post-time. Both of my horses were overlays, meaning the odds on my horses increased after wagering began, offering me more value than that oddsmaker at the track thought appropriate. For example, Albano started the day at 6-1 but when the race actually started he was closer to 15-1 (note to self: do an entry on overlays at some point; in a maiden race if my odds went up that much I would be scared as opposed to delighted).     

Untapable did not win the Haskell. She got caught wide throughout and then tried to make a move on the far turn, but she was never a serious threat to the winner.  That's because Bayern ran like a horse possessed. This is the same Bayern that won for me on Belmont Day leading to a $800 Pick 3. 

Did I bet him this time around?  Of course not.  Why would I do a logical thing like that?!?!?!     

I thought the Haskell's 1 1/8 mile distance would be too much for Bayern. On Belmont day he nearly broke the track record at seven furlongs, but that race was a 1/4 mile shorter than the Haskell.  For a thoroughbred racing at 40 mph, tacking on an extra 1/4 mile is like a human running an extra 10K.  It's normally a very big deal.

Except it wasn't a big deal for Bayern. He got an easy lead and then toyed with the field. Poor call on my part. What are you gonna do.       

Fortunately, Albano ran second, returning a decent amount, and I finished ahead on the day thanks to back-to-back winning doubles to start the proceedings. A great day of racing all around and a big thank you to NBC for an hour of Haskell coverage on Sunday; every little bit of mid-summer attention on racing helps.                   

Sunday's wagers from Monmouth (and one from Saratoga to prove I'm an equal opportunity gambler):

   

The Shawon-O-Meter is Back: Aiming to Bat .333 at the Track

Had a couple good wagering days recently thanks to Del Mar, while putting myself in a position to win a lot more burritos when my longshots won the first race in multi-race bets.  Thankfully I played the longshots across the board, not solely in the multi-race bets. That's not always the case.

Often I will include longshots in a multi-race bet hoping to get some leverage, but I won't play the horse individually. I only have so many pesos to spend and I try to use them judicially.

Admittedly, this judiciousness assumes I'm not at Santa Anita pounding Dos Equis in the paddock on Breeders' Cup weekend. Judiciousness gets fuegoed Breeders' Cup weekend. The betting options are just too good, and the Dos Equis tastes too fine. Not surprisingly given those circumstances, my average bet tends to dramatically increase Breeders' Cup weekend. Note to Santa Anita: send Dos Equis a little extra dinero in their Navidad card next year.  

But mid-week betting on Del Mar from my couch can't be confused with Breeders' Cup weekend, and so I have to ask myself all the big questions before playing $2 across the board on a horse that is 20-1 ("would this $6 be better spent on 2/3 of a Maker's and Ginger later tonight?") . 

Thankfully I splurged on Pulla Train and $6 turned into $63.60. I also had Pulla in the first leg of a double, putting me in position to win another $240 if New Nature could win the following race.  

New Nature did not win the following race. He ran second. That's gonna happen. A lot.  

Murphy's 1st law of horse racing: your horse will finish second exponentially more often than first when you are live in a multi-race bet.  Running second in this scenario is a gut-wrenching way to lose, akin to a bad beat in poker.  But it's also inevitable, so you might as well grab a koozy and a Bud Heavy and get accustomed to running second when you need a W.

That, and I strongly recommend this bit of strategery from the bible of Spaceballs.          

I'm not about to stop playing multi-race bets just because of a near miss.  I spent $8 and came close to winning $240, and I still won over $50 on the race thanks to my across the board bet on Pulla Train. That = a license to keep firing. And a license to have more than 2/3 of a Maker's & Ginger.  

But it also got me thinking about an important question as a bettor: knowing that most of multi-race bets will be losers, what's a realistic target for the % of days I should walk away a winner at the track?

Multi-race bets -- like doubles and Pick 3's -- represent between 15 - 35% of my spend on most days.  And I'm gare-own-teed to lose the vast majority of those bets.  Around 90% will be losers.

Playing this out, I would guess that my average return on a $2 double is $70 and my average return on a $1 Pick 3 is $250.  Admittedly, these averages will fluctuate a fair amount from year to year.  On Belmont Day I hit a $1 Pick 3 which paid $800, so this year's Pick 3 average would be higher.  

Importantly, my average cost to play those bets isn't $1 and $2 respectively, because I'm using multiple horses in a lot of races.  My average cost in a double is probably $8 (often 4 horses in one race and then a single in the other), and my average cost in a Pick 3 is around $16 (6 horses X 3 horses X 1 horse).  Those examples are averages and will vary from bet to bet depending on what I think of the horses in a given sequence of races.                        

Based on my average costs and expected returns, I need to win 12% or more of the doubles I play and 7% or more of the Pick 3's I play in order to end up ahead.  If I play one double and one Pick 3 on a typical day, it also means I'm going to start 90% of my gambling days down $24.  That's a significant hole if i'm only going to spend another $50 on wagers in a typical day.

Realistically, I think I ought to be able to overcome that deficit 1 in 4 times.  One decent winner across the board would do it, as was the case yesterday with Pulla Train.  Or an exacta that didn't involve two favorites would get me back in the black.  Or a series of well played smaller bets.  

Accordingly, on the gambling days in which I don't hit a double or Pick 3, I'm going to set a goal of winning 25% of the time.  90% of betting days X 25% = 22.5% of gambling days. 

On the other hand every single time I hit a double or Pick 3 -- noting the possibility for an exception on the days when the Dos Equis flows like wine -- I should walk away a winner.  So that's another 10% of the time I should walk away a winner.  Those days should also represent the vast majority of my profits.  I'm counting on a few big winning days, like at the Belmont, to float a bunch of small losers.   

Admittedly, I don't think this a good strategery for everyone. Especially for newcomers. I think new bettors would be better off focusing on a few horses you like throughout the race card and playing them across the board, or even to win or show depending on the betting pools, and then using the rest of your money in a conservative manner that also allows you to learn as you go.  Just getting accustomed to amounts being played in the place and show pools and determining the relative value of those pools is a big deal (and an idea for a future entry).      

But for the sake of this rambling blog I wanted to set a goal for winning days and give you a perspective on how I arrived at this goal.  With that in mind, we'll see if I can hit .333 this year.  It will be like our own version of the Shawon-O-Meter.

I'll start looking for some cardboard and a magic marker. Go Cubs.     

            

Opening Day at the Spa

Back to back days. Here we go. Summer in full swing.

Yesterday was everything California, a rollicking day of racing and partying by the sea.  Today we visit upstate New York and Saratoga race track, where the air will have a more leisurely feel and every step will be steeped in history.  

Saratoga is commonly known as The Spa for the mineral springs which have lured visitors to Saratoga Springs for centuries. The oldest sporting venue in the country, Saratoga is a place where time stands still.  Today the gates open for the 146th season. 

Most visitors will bring a picnic and stake out their spot under the oak trees which line the Saratoga grounds. 20,000+ attendees will walk through the turnstiles every weekend day until September to see the best horses on the east coast, which traditionally stable at Saratoga and make an appearance at some point in the seven week meet. Everyone wants to be a part of the fun at The Spa.   

As for today's gambling, yesterday at Del Mar I was reacquainted with an important lesson that I need to commit to memory (or brand into my skin): track conditions matter, and there is no way to know how the track is playing early on opening day.  Yesterday speed was fairing very well on both the main track and the turf course at Del Mar.  Horses that were trying to come from behind were for the most part stuck in the mud, which applied to several of my Pick 3 selections.  Locking in my selections before getting a good read on how the track was faring is a rookie mistake.   

My key horse from yesterday Super Reagan got in good position early in the race and finished a hard fought second.  I thought he had it won turning for home, but he couldn't get passed the winner.  I had a $10 show bet on Super Reagan which returned $16 and helped to negate a little of the losses from my Pick 3, but I lost that profit of $6 right back when I played $2 across the board on Stoney Fleece in the 5th race who started slow and had no luck trying to pass horses in the stretch.   

In short, I should have watched a few races before committing to the horses in my Pick 3.  Or I should have negated my Pick 3 altogether and focused more energy on the races in the latter part of the card, once I knew how the track was faring.

I won't make the same mistake today.

I'm going to watch the first few races at Saratoga and then develop a plan for races later in the day.  Maybe play a late double or just enjoy the action and pick out a few horses to support across the board.  It's a long racing season and the excitement of an opening day can catch up with you, but patience is a huge virtue at the betting window and today I'm going to use some discretion. 

Opening day at The Spa is enough to get me excited.  The profits can wait.  At least a few races.             

      

Opening Day at Del Mar

Some days at the track are better than others.  And some are in another stratosphere.  Today, which is opening day at Del Mar, falls in the latter category.  It's one of the dozen or so "can't miss" racing dates on the calendar each year.

Del Mar opened its gates for business 77 years ago, and on that initial day patrons were greeted by a familiar face who was also one of the track's owners, Bing Crosby.  Good times, and good racing, have been a constant theme ever since.  The Pacific waves crashing onto land less than 1/2 mile away inspired Del Mar's tag line: "where the turf meets the surf." There's no better backdrop in racing.      

Fortunately for our betting purposes, owners and trainers flock to Del Mar.  No one wants to miss out on the big purses, or the party.  All of which translates to big fields with lots of viable betting interests. Opening day is no exception.

The average field size today is 10, and there are very few duds amongst the betting options.  It's a virtual guarantee that some of the multi-race bets will yield big payouts.  Place and show payouts will also exceed the norm, as dollars get spread out on more horses.  In short, there is a lot of different ways we can go as we aim to cash a few tickets as a poor substitute for being there in person.

As I start to scroll through the past performances for today's card, I'm quickly reminded of an important betting consideration: most of today's entrants on the main track have been running at Santa Anita all spring, which is a dirt surface.  Del Mar's main track is an all-weather polytrack.  The two surfaces are very, very different.  And that brings us to Betting Angle to Live By #5: proceed with caution when a horse has never raced over the track.

A horse could be in the best form of his life, but if he has never raced at a particular track, there's a valid reason to question whether the current form will translate to continued success.  There's exponentially more reason to be cautious if the horse is also running on a new surface, as is the case when a horse goes from dirt to polytrack for the first time.

Some of today's races will feature multiple horses who have never run at Del Mar. Workouts over the course become more important in those instances.  And if a horse has never run on any polytrack course I'm going to demand a much higher price, or I'm going to take a stand and bet against the favorite, opting to go deep and use a lot of horses in a multi-race bet (like a Pick 3).

My feature bet of the day will highlight a lightly raced maiden who ran his best race over Polytrack, the #2 (Super Reagan) in the 4th race.  Maidens are horses which have never won, and race tracks often have races solely for maidens in order to ensure the race is competitive. Super Reagan has only raced three times and in his last race he was running against better horses in a $40K claiming race, whereas today he drops and runs for $20K.  I'll be very surprised if his morning line of 8-1 holds, but I think he has a big chance today at a decent price.  

My Pick 3 will start in the 3rd race where I'm going to use 2 (Hail Mary), 3 (Zilber) & 5 (Biorythym). Then I'm only using Super Reagan in the 4th race.  In the last leg I'll go five deep with 2, 7, 8, 9, and 10.  That $1 Pick 3 will only cost me $18.

Depending on the odds at post time, I'm likely to play some money on the 2 and/or 8 in the 5th race, as I think both have a decent shot and should offer some value.

Summer officially begins when racing starts at Del Mar and Saratoga. Del Mar opens today, Saratoga tomorrow. I can't wait to get to both places before this summer ends.  



   

Previewing Tomorrow's Arlington Handicap......

Heading to Arlington tomorrow to watch four turf races which are preps for Arlington Million Day.  The Million has one of the most remarkable histories in our sport, and it was the first thoroughbred race to boast a $1M purse. It's a must attend event on for anyone living in proximity to Chicago.

The Million, and all of Arlington's biggest races, are run on turf.  I happen to prefer betting on turf races, especially those a mile or more in length.  In general, turf fields are larger and the races a little less predictable. Jockeys are forced to get in good position early to avoid getting caught wide going into the first turn.  And the stretch run is shorter in turf races, which means it's really important to be in good position coming out of the final turn. Easier said than done. 

Screwy things happen on turf. Which leads to bigger payouts. What's not to like?      

In preparation for tomorrow, I want to review two horses in the 7th race, the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap on turf.  As a quick aside, you can find these past performances (often called "PPs") and the PPs for all the graded stakes races for this weekend here (refreshed weekly).   

First let's take a look at the #1 horse, Admiral Kitten:

                          

Admiral Kitten's morning line odds are 3-1, as noted in the top left corner above the jockey, "Leparoux." Those odds are Admiral Kitten's success last year, in particular his success at Arlington Park. In the top right of the screenshot, the "AP" stands for Arlington Park and the "3  1 - 2 - 0" next to AP means that Admiral Kitten has raced three times at Arlington Park.  The "1" means he won one of those three races, and the "2" means he finished second twice. A stellar record. More so because he won the G1 ("Grade One") Secretariat.  G1 races are as good as it gets in horse racing. 

However, Admiral Kitten's record in 2014 essssssssss not so good.  In 2014 his record in four races -- as noted two rows above the "AP" -- one victory and no 2nd or 3rd place finishes. The one victory was a Grade 3 on January 25th at "Hou" (Sam Houston Racetrack). Sam Houston is not known for hosting great turf races and that victory should not be considered in the same class as his wins last year.  

Meanwhile, Admiral Kitten's form since January reminds me of Roy Hibbert's submarine dive with the the Indiana Pacers over that same time. This was a superb horse up until January. Since then it looks like he needs a psychiatrist.  Admiral Kitten has been inexplicably awful the last five months.

Mike Maker, Admiral Kitten's trainer, is obviously hoping a return to Arlington will help his colt. His best race would easily beat this group. None of these are horses are in Admiral Kitten's class, if he regain the form from last year.  But it's not 2013 any more, and there is no way i'm taking 3-1 on a horse is less than his best.  Would you bet on horse racing's version of Roy Hibbert? Me neither.      

And that brings us to BALB #4: be very leery of favorites with recent form issues.

It's one thing to bet on a horse coming off a singular bad race, a strategy I whole-heartedly endorse.  Horses have bad days.  But I expect increased odds for my willingness to bet on a horse coming off a clunker.  It's very different to bet on a horse with low odds coming off multiple poor efforts. 

Granted, Admiral Kitten is only four years old, which means he should be in the prime of his career. It's entirely possible that when he gets back on the Arlington turf tomorrow, he will steamroll this group. But I'm going to make Admiral Kitten prove his current form isn't a fluke before he gets any of my dollars. The odds just don't warrant the investment in my opinion. 

Meanwhile, Infinite Magic's past performances look very similar to Admiral Kitten in some respects, but I'm much more interested in his prospects.   

Here are the specific considerations which make me interested in Infinite Magic as a bettor:

• Infinite Magic has only raced once this year. Horses aren't typically at their best in their first race after a break, so we need to excuse his last race, which wasn't that bad. Meanwhile, horses often race really well in their second or third race after a break, which is why you see a star above and the note "Eligible to improve in 2nd start since Layoff" (note: Admiral Kitten's 2nd and 3rd races this year after a layoff were terrible, another red flag). 
• Two of Infinite Magic's recent races were on wet turf courses.  In the Oct 5th race the course was soft ("sf") and in Infinite Magic's most recent race "yl" means yielding, another designation for a wet course. It's obvious that Infinite Magic doesn't like wet turf courses; all of his best races have been on firm ground. So I'm willing to excuse the poor races on wet ground, but if it rains tonight or tomorrow my entire outlook on this horse changes.     
• Infinite Magic likes to win.  He won two races by a nose (noted as "1no" in the PP above) and another by a head ("1hd"). When this horse is in a close race, he tends to win.  That's a great attribute, especially for a long shot.
• Infinite Magic is offering value.  Infinite Magic's morning line odds are 10-1, more than 3X that of Admiral Kitten.  I'm not sure he will offer quite that much value at post time tomorrow, but i'm guessing he will be 8-1 and 2.5X Admiral Kitten's odds.  

If Infinite Magic goes off at 8-1, a means to evaluate the value you're getting is to ask yourself: if this race were run eight times, would Infinite Magic win it more than once? I think he would. He has won 50% of the turf races on firm ground in his career. So as long as there's no rain tomorrow, and his odds are 8-1 or higher, Infinite Magic will be getting some of my pesos tomorrow. We'll see how I fare.              

                

Editor's Note: as chance would have it, it did rain at Arlington, which negated my visit and my bet on Infinite Magic.  It was a good thing I held off as Infinite Magic was no factor in the race.  Admiral Kitten got a dream run along the inside and finished a narrowly beaten second.     

Wimbledon, Woodbine, and Rehashing Yesterday's Big Near Miss....

Sunday on the couch after a long weekend of fun.  And what a lazy-day itinerary: Federer vs Djokovic at Wimbledon and betting on races at Woodbine Racetrack (just outside of Toronto), which is hosting their signature event, The Queen's Plate.  The 1 1/4 mile Queen's Plate at Woodbine is solely for three year old horses, just like the Kentucky Derby, and it is North America's oldest continuously run race.   This is the 155th running of the Queen's Plate.

For frame of reference, California Chrome won the 140th Kentucky Derby in May.  Saratoga will host the 145th running of the Travers this summer.  And there have only been 80 runnings of the Big Cap, the most prestigious race with some miles on the tread in California.              

To summarize: this race is old, it's a really big deal in Canada, and if we were at Woodbine instead of sitting on le couch, we would encounter lots of blue at its best.

But before we bust out the maple syrup and our best rendition of "Oh Canada", let's rehash yesterday's picks at Belmont where my wagering strategy focused on betting against Toast of New York in the Belmont Derby Invitational.

As hoped, Toast of New York's first race in the U.S. was not overly impressive. He was in perfect position at the top of the stretch but faded to fourth place, which will raise more questions as to whether turf is his preferred surface.  Even better, one of the six horses I used in my Pick 3, Mr. Speaker, won the race at 21-1. Mr. Speaker's morning line odds were 15-1 and the increased value at post time convinced me to play $2 across the board on Mr. Speaker which returned $77.80. An absolutely ideal start to my betting day. As a quick aside, Mr Speaker was 21-1 because his previous race was absolutely dismal (shout out to BALB #1)

My potential Pick 3 payout went from really good to redonkulous when Zivo won the second race at 13-1, triggering the exact scenario I mentioned yesterday: I hit the first two races and had to decide  whether to hedge and play other horses to win the last race of my Pick 3.  

It's a great problem to have, but I wasn't prepared for the implications.

I checked the Will Pays after Zivo won the second leg of the Pick 3, and my $1 wager was going to pay $3100 and change if Room Service could win the Oaks.  Tatonka.  I knew it would pay a lot but that exceeded my expectations.

The only problem: my payout was $0 if Room Service didn't win the Oaks.  And with 11 horses in the race it was going to cost me a lot of coin if I wanted to ensure I ended up winning any amount between $0 - $3100.  For example, I could have played an average of $100 to win on the other 10 horses in the field.  In reality I would have needed to play more than $100 on horses with low odds and less than $100 on horses with higher odds, but I could have spent $1000 to ensure I made a profit of $100 if Room Service lost.  In essence,  I would have changed my potential payouts from 1) $0 or $3100 if I did nothing to 2) $100 or $2100 with this hedge.  Assuming Room Service had a better than 1 in 10 chance of winning the Oaks -- and at odds of 3-1 I thought she had a much better chance -- the second option was a loser.      

However, I did play between $5 - $30 (totally of $60) to win on five horses in the field.  I bet on the horses which I thought most likely to win while offering decent value, and I left out the five horses whose chances of winning -- combined with their odds -- didn't warrant the investment in my opinion.

Did Room Service win the Oaks?  Not so much.  Did one of the other five horses I played as part of my hedge win the Oaks?  Not so much.  Good times.  

Minorette won the Oaks with jockey Joel Rosario aboard.  Rosario being one of the best three of four big race jockeys in the country.  Why would I want to include him?

In truth I considered playing a win bet on Minorette as part of my hedge, but she started the day at 12-1 (morning line odds) and went off at 6-1.  The same rationale that lead me to bet on Mr. Speaker earlier in the day convinced me that Minorette wasn't worth the investment based on my potential return if she won.  It was a disappointing loss, but a day later I still feel ok about my decision not to include Minorette in my hedge or My Pick 3.  You can' bet everyone.

On the other hand, I am disappointed in my decision to single Room Service in the Oaks.  I should have singled Zivo and played more horses in the Oaks.  And that brings us to Betting Angle to Live By #3: never single a stone cold closer in a turf race.  

It's very difficult to pass the entire field in a turf race. Very, very difficult if there's a big field.  The turf course is always inside the dirt course in the U.S., which means the turns are tighter and the stretch run is always shorter.  A horse like Room Service, which likes to start slow and try and pass horses at the end of the race, has to cover a lot more ground in order to do so.  It's a feat that is difficult but more likely with a small field, with say six or seven horses.  The Oaks had eleven horses, and yet I singled a horse that was a stone, cold closer.  Poor decision by me.  You live and learn (hopefully).

Thankfully I still made a few pesos yesterday with my bets on Mr. Speaker and Zivo across the board.  Anytime you win a little money and put yourself in position to win a lot of money you chalk the day up as a success.  Let's hope the Stars and Stripes Day was also a big success for Belmont and this card becomes a mainstay on the annual calendar.                

As we turn the page to today's action to Woodbine, a necessary admission: I don't know squat about Woodbine.  Squat being the technical term.  I bet on Woodbine once or twice a year.

In actuality, it's important to know more than squat when you are betting on horse races.  More specifically, it's good to know as much as humanly possible.  

Here are some of the things I don't know about Woodbine that I probably should know:

• How speed is faring this meet at Woodbine (i.e. do horses that start fast fare well in races, or do horses tend to fare better if they come from behind?)
• How various parts of the track faring (ex: on some race tracks if a horse is stuck on the inside -- like in the first post position in the starting gate -- it is very bad news.  On other tracks being stuck on the outside can be very bad, especially if the race is over a mile in length). 
• Which Woodbine trainers are having success this year and offering value to bettors. 

Yes, I'm wading into unfamiliar waters, but that shortcoming won't prevent me from betting on some of the finest mammals north of the border.

Whereas most racetracks offer $.50 or $1 Pick 3s, Woodbine kindly offers them starting at $.20.  Kudos to Woodbine.  For this -- and for Nelly Furtado -- I salute you.

The fields today at Woodbine are really big so even a $.20 Pick 3 has a chance to pay a lot.  My $1 Pick 3 from yesterday put me in a position to win $3100, and it wouldn't surprise me if this $.20 Pick 3 pays a couple hundred bucks or more.

I'm going to use three closers in the race before the Queen's Plate as there is a ton of speed in that race (2, 4, and 10). I'll use five horses in the Queen's Plate (5, 6, 8, 14, and 15).  Then I'm going to use four horses in the race after the Queen's Plate (2, 3, 6, and 7).

I feel really good about my selections in the Queen's Plate, less so about the other two races.  Thankfully, this $.20 Pick 3 is only costing me $12 even though I'm using 3 or more horses in every race.  And I've purposefully constructed this wager to offer a lot of value if I can hit the first leg using three horses at higher odds.

In the Queen's Plate I'm also going to play #15, Ami's Holiday, across the board. I think he's likely to be in the money and has a shot at winning the race at a decent price.  Betting on Ami's Holiday gives me a rooting interest in Canada's biggest race, even if my Pick 3 is a loser.              

Stars and Stripes at Belmont & Los Al Opens with a Bang......

Certain themes will be beat to death. You've been warned. Atop the list: there's year-round fun to be had as a horse racing fan. And this July 4th weekend is a prime example.

The racing calendar this weekend is like Denny's at 4 am on a Saturday night: it's a crowded lineup, ultra diverse, there's value to be had, and nothing would surprise me.

An entry dedicated to Canada's premier race, the Queen's Plate, is hopefully forthcoming tomorrow.  For now we focus on the coasts, as Belmont hosts a pair of new, million dollar turf races in addition to a couple staples, the Suburban and the Dwyer (Belmont is marketing the entire day of racing as The Stars and Stripes). Later in southern California, Los Alamitos opens their door to thoroughbred racing, filling a void from Hollywood Park's closing.

Los Al has been an esteemed host to quarter horse racing for the last 63 years, and their first foray into thoroughbred racing is not a half-hearted effort. Saturday's feature event is the $500K Los Alamitos Derby which attracted 2 year-old champion and early Derby favorite, Shared Belief, who is coming back after an injury plagued spring.      

As a bettor this weekend appeals to me a lot.  As in, a lot a lot.  I am always looking for racing cards that have big fields (ex: races with more than 8 horses) and/or unusual characteristics.  A racetrack that is hosting thoroughbred racing for the first time -- meaning bettors have no means of knowing whether the horses will take a liking to this particular track -- qualifies as very, very unusual.

Meanwhile the feature race in New York features a mix of horses from the U.S. and Europe, and the European invaders have never run on the Belmont turf.  The ground in the U.S. tends to be much firmer than in Europe, which appeals to some horses much more than others, which means more uncertainty for bettor.  Uncertainty is another characteristic which bettors should welcome with open arms when looking for a big payday.         

And now we've arrived at Betting Angle to Live By #2: you don't have to like a horse to be excited about a race; you can be excited if you are willing to bet against horses as well. 

Yes, that's right, the short is alive and well in thoroughbred racing.  It's an important concept that will be revisited often as I frequently utilize this strategy in my wagers.   

In today's feature race at Belmont, the $1.25M Belmont Invitational Handicap, the morning line favorite -- set by the track's oddsmaker before anyone starts betting and influences the finals odds -- is Toast of New York.  Toast of New York is by all accounts, a terrific horse.  In his brief, five-race career, he has won three races and $1.2M.  That is mucho coin for a young horse. 

But all of Toast of New York's earnings have come on synthetic racetracks and today he is racing on grass.  Ironically, Toast of New York is one of the horses shipping in from Europe who has never raced in the U.S., and it's entirely possible he won't care for the turf course in the state of his namesake.  Horses experience jet lag too and any time they race away from tracks they are familiar with you have to proceed cautiously.  Finally, Toast of New York hasn't raced in over three months, and that is a little too long for my taste buds to confidently back a horse.       

Granted, horses who run well on synthetic racetracks often run well on grass too. Horses are also capable of running well in their first race after rest.  In fact, Toast of New York has already proven capable of firing off the bench.  All of which is to admit that I may look back and think my willingness to bet against this horse was about as smart as a midnight walk with Vlad the Impaler.  But I've had too much success in the past taking stands of this variety, which is why it's a BALB.    

I'm going to play a daily double and a Pick 3 at Belmont and take six different horses in the Belmont Derby Invitational (3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9).  I'm not including Toast of New York in that lot trying as I'm willing to subtract a few pesos -- $36 to be exact -- if he wins.

I'm going to play a $18 double with Declan's Warrior, Dad's Cap, and Palace in the race before the Belmont Invitational.  A double requires me to pick the winner of two straight horses, but I can use as many horses as I want in each race.  The costs can add up quickly and can sometimes exceed the payout if you win, so it's best not to get too carried away.   My double in which I play three horses in one race and six in the next will cost me $18, and I'm confident based on the horses I've selected that all of my possible combinations will pay $18 or more.      

In my Pick 3 the Belmont Invitational will be the first race, and I'll use the same six horses.  In the second race of that bet, the Suburban, I'm going to include Zivo at a big price, Norumbega, and the Last Gun Fighter (horses 3, 4, and 5).  Finally, in the Belmont Oaks Invitational I'm only taking one horse: Room Service.  When you only take one horse in a multi-race bet like a Pick 3, the lone horse you are selecting is called a "single."  My $1 Pick 3 in which I use six horses in the first race of my bet, three horses in the second race, and only one race in the third race (6 X 3 X 1) will also cost me $18.  

I'm singling Room Service because she is the best young, turf filly in America.  She has only raced once this year.  And even though she has never raced at Belmont, her past performances keep getting better.  If she just runs as well as her last race and gets a good trip, I think she will win this race.    

Importantly: if I win the first two races in my Pick 3, I've got additional options.  I can check and see what my Pick 3 will pay before the third race of my bet is run, and I can play some money to win horses other than Room Service as a hedge.  Every racetrack and online betting sites like TVG post "will pays" for Pick 3s going into the final race of the bet, so you know exactly how much you stand to win if you are still live (win the first two races).  This is an additional advantage, and not a small one, of singling a horse in the last race of your Pick 3.  If my single is in the first race of a Pick 3 I don't have the opportunity to hedge because I have no idea how my horses will fare in the latter races.

Depending on the odds, I'm also likely to play some money on individual horses throughout the races at Belmont.  Zivo for sure, and likely a few others as well.  In order to try and determine how much value each horse offers on their own, I will wait and evaluate each horse's odds closer to post time (i.e. when the race starts).  Whether or not this is a good idea is certainly open for discussion, as sometimes I will decide not to bet on a horse I originally liked because other bettors have jumped on the bandwagon too and lowered the horses odds.  It's certainly bitten me before, but it's still the route I prefer.                      

Tonight at Los Alamitos Shared Belief will be a huge favorite, even though he's never run at Los Al or on dirt; his races to date have all been on synthetic surfaces (alarm bells should be ringing).  Shared Belief has yet to lose a race, and he was so impressive as a two year-old that his odds will be adversely affected due to the hype.  Every horse racing fan in California knows this horse.

I won't be disappointed if Shared Belief wins; I was on his bandwagon early on and even had a future bet on him to win the Kentucky Derby last November at 40-1.  That being said, I'm going to play Can the Man across the board in this race (to win, place, and show).  Can the Man has already won on the dirt.  He has trained well at Los Alamitos.  And he should offer enough value that if he runs second, I'll should get my money back.  If he wins, a decent payout awaits.