Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Born to Run: A Girl Takes on the Boys in the Haskell

Sunday was another day to circle on the racing calendar, this time at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Monmouth being only a few miles north of Asbury Park, a native son had a prominent role in the proceedings.

Any day of racing that effectively integrates The Boss earns bonus points. A day that also includes a phenomenal filly taking on the boys is worthy of the record button on the DVR.  

And the filly in question wasn't racing merely to draw attention. Untapable is the star of Steve Asmussen's barn. She has been beyond brilliant in 2014, starting to earn comparisons to Asmussen's best filly ever, Rachel Alexandra, a filly who took on the boys in this very race in 2009 and won.

Sunday it was Untapable's chance to repeat the feat.             

Coming into the Haskell, Untapable was beginning to look the part of her phenomenal predecessor. She crushed the field in the Kentucky Oaks and followed suit with a similar effort in the Moother Goose.  

But those races were against other fillies. Prior to Sunday, she had never raced against boys.

A filly racing against the boys is atypical but not unheard of.  It happens more frequently with mares (i.e. a female horse which is at least four years old).  Mares are typically more experienced and they have added weight by that point in their career: both major pluses when jockeying for position with colts throughout the early stages of a race.       

Meanwhile, Untapable is three years old and had raced only eight times in her career prior to Sunday.  And the fillies she has beaten have looked mediocre at best.  For her, this race was the equivalent of leaving the friendly confines of Sea World to swim with the sharks in the ocean.     

Even with Sharknado looming, I still thought Untapable had a decent chance to win the Haskell.  She has been that impressive in her recent outings. But her odds at post time, even money, simply didn't warrant the investment. Those are crazy low odds for a filly taking on the boys for the first time.  

Some of the dollars being bet on her were surely of the sentimental variety, but I've had my wallet lightened too many times to let that play a factor. Instead, I played Social Inclusion and Albano across the board, and included them in an exacta box with Untapable (all of Sunday wagers are at bottom; I will start posting winning days to validate wagers made).     

I felt good about my Haskell bets, especially because of the odds at post-time. Both of my horses were overlays, meaning the odds on my horses increased after wagering began, offering me more value than that oddsmaker at the track thought appropriate. For example, Albano started the day at 6-1 but when the race actually started he was closer to 15-1 (note to self: do an entry on overlays at some point; in a maiden race if my odds went up that much I would be scared as opposed to delighted).     

Untapable did not win the Haskell. She got caught wide throughout and then tried to make a move on the far turn, but she was never a serious threat to the winner.  That's because Bayern ran like a horse possessed. This is the same Bayern that won for me on Belmont Day leading to a $800 Pick 3. 

Did I bet him this time around?  Of course not.  Why would I do a logical thing like that?!?!?!     

I thought the Haskell's 1 1/8 mile distance would be too much for Bayern. On Belmont day he nearly broke the track record at seven furlongs, but that race was a 1/4 mile shorter than the Haskell.  For a thoroughbred racing at 40 mph, tacking on an extra 1/4 mile is like a human running an extra 10K.  It's normally a very big deal.

Except it wasn't a big deal for Bayern. He got an easy lead and then toyed with the field. Poor call on my part. What are you gonna do.       

Fortunately, Albano ran second, returning a decent amount, and I finished ahead on the day thanks to back-to-back winning doubles to start the proceedings. A great day of racing all around and a big thank you to NBC for an hour of Haskell coverage on Sunday; every little bit of mid-summer attention on racing helps.                   

Sunday's wagers from Monmouth (and one from Saratoga to prove I'm an equal opportunity gambler):



   

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