For frame of reference, California Chrome won the 140th Kentucky Derby in May. Saratoga will host the 145th running of the Travers this summer. And there have only been 80 runnings of the Big Cap, the most prestigious race with some miles on the tread in California.
To summarize: this race is old, it's a really big deal in Canada, and if we were at Woodbine instead of sitting on le couch, we would encounter lots of blue at its best.
But before we bust out the maple syrup and our best rendition of "Oh Canada", let's rehash yesterday's picks at Belmont where my wagering strategy focused on betting against Toast of New York in the Belmont Derby Invitational.
As hoped, Toast of New York's first race in the U.S. was not overly impressive. He was in perfect position at the top of the stretch but faded to fourth place, which will raise more questions as to whether turf is his preferred surface. Even better, one of the six horses I used in my Pick 3, Mr. Speaker, won the race at 21-1. Mr. Speaker's morning line odds were 15-1 and the increased value at post time convinced me to play $2 across the board on Mr. Speaker which returned $77.80. An absolutely ideal start to my betting day. As a quick aside, Mr Speaker was 21-1 because his previous race was absolutely dismal (shout out to BALB #1)
My potential Pick 3 payout went from really good to redonkulous when Zivo won the second race at 13-1, triggering the exact scenario I mentioned yesterday: I hit the first two races and had to decide whether to hedge and play other horses to win the last race of my Pick 3.
It's a great problem to have, but I wasn't prepared for the implications.
I checked the Will Pays after Zivo won the second leg of the Pick 3, and my $1 wager was going to pay $3100 and change if Room Service could win the Oaks. Tatonka. I knew it would pay a lot but that exceeded my expectations.
The only problem: my payout was $0 if Room Service didn't win the Oaks. And with 11 horses in the race it was going to cost me a lot of coin if I wanted to ensure I ended up winning any amount between $0 - $3100. For example, I could have played an average of $100 to win on the other 10 horses in the field. In reality I would have needed to play more than $100 on horses with low odds and less than $100 on horses with higher odds, but I could have spent $1000 to ensure I made a profit of $100 if Room Service lost. In essence, I would have changed my potential payouts from 1) $0 or $3100 if I did nothing to 2) $100 or $2100 with this hedge. Assuming Room Service had a better than 1 in 10 chance of winning the Oaks -- and at odds of 3-1 I thought she had a much better chance -- the second option was a loser.
However, I did play between $5 - $30 (totally of $60) to win on five horses in the field. I bet on the horses which I thought most likely to win while offering decent value, and I left out the five horses whose chances of winning -- combined with their odds -- didn't warrant the investment in my opinion.
Did Room Service win the Oaks? Not so much. Did one of the other five horses I played as part of my hedge win the Oaks? Not so much. Good times.
Minorette won the Oaks with jockey Joel Rosario aboard. Rosario being one of the best three of four big race jockeys in the country. Why would I want to include him?
In truth I considered playing a win bet on Minorette as part of my hedge, but she started the day at 12-1 (morning line odds) and went off at 6-1. The same rationale that lead me to bet on Mr. Speaker earlier in the day convinced me that Minorette wasn't worth the investment based on my potential return if she won. It was a disappointing loss, but a day later I still feel ok about my decision not to include Minorette in my hedge or My Pick 3. You can' bet everyone.
On the other hand, I am disappointed in my decision to single Room Service in the Oaks. I should have singled Zivo and played more horses in the Oaks. And that brings us to Betting Angle to Live By #3: never single a stone cold closer in a turf race.
It's very difficult to pass the entire field in a turf race. Very, very difficult if there's a big field. The turf course is always inside the dirt course in the U.S., which means the turns are tighter and the stretch run is always shorter. A horse like Room Service, which likes to start slow and try and pass horses at the end of the race, has to cover a lot more ground in order to do so. It's a feat that is difficult but more likely with a small field, with say six or seven horses. The Oaks had eleven horses, and yet I singled a horse that was a stone, cold closer. Poor decision by me. You live and learn (hopefully).
Thankfully I still made a few pesos yesterday with my bets on Mr. Speaker and Zivo across the board. Anytime you win a little money and put yourself in position to win a lot of money you chalk the day up as a success. Let's hope the Stars and Stripes Day was also a big success for Belmont and this card becomes a mainstay on the annual calendar.
As we turn the page to today's action to Woodbine, a necessary admission: I don't know squat about Woodbine. Squat being the technical term. I bet on Woodbine once or twice a year.
In actuality, it's important to know more than squat when you are betting on horse races. More specifically, it's good to know as much as humanly possible.
Here are some of the things I don't know about Woodbine that I probably should know:
- How speed is faring this meet at Woodbine (i.e. do horses that start fast fare well in races, or do horses tend to fare better if they come from behind?)
- How various parts of the track faring (ex: on some race tracks if a horse is stuck on the inside -- like in the first post position in the starting gate -- it is very bad news. On other tracks being stuck on the outside can be very bad, especially if the race is over a mile in length).
- Which Woodbine trainers are having success this year and offering value to bettors.
Whereas most racetracks offer $.50 or $1 Pick 3s, Woodbine kindly offers them starting at $.20. Kudos to Woodbine. For this -- and for Nelly Furtado -- I salute you.
The fields today at Woodbine are really big so even a $.20 Pick 3 has a chance to pay a lot. My $1 Pick 3 from yesterday put me in a position to win $3100, and it wouldn't surprise me if this $.20 Pick 3 pays a couple hundred bucks or more.
I'm going to use three closers in the race before the Queen's Plate as there is a ton of speed in that race (2, 4, and 10). I'll use five horses in the Queen's Plate (5, 6, 8, 14, and 15). Then I'm going to use four horses in the race after the Queen's Plate (2, 3, 6, and 7).
I feel really good about my selections in the Queen's Plate, less so about the other two races. Thankfully, this $.20 Pick 3 is only costing me $12 even though I'm using 3 or more horses in every race. And I've purposefully constructed this wager to offer a lot of value if I can hit the first leg using three horses at higher odds.
In the Queen's Plate I'm also going to play #15, Ami's Holiday, across the board. I think he's likely to be in the money and has a shot at winning the race at a decent price. Betting on Ami's Holiday gives me a rooting interest in Canada's biggest race, even if my Pick 3 is a loser.
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